Hurricane Ian - Florida citrus (September 2022)
Sep 2022: a documented market event that overlapped the wholesale price windows of 1 tracked ingredient — co-occurrence in time, never an asserted cause.
What happened
Hurricane Ian made landfall as a Category 4 storm on Florida's southwest coast on Sept 28, 2022 and crossed major citrus-producing counties, damaging trees and knocking down fruit. USDA's December 9, 2022 forecast lowered the all-grapefruit forecast to 1.80 million boxes and put 2022/23 Florida orange production about 36% below its October estimate — reflecting damage from Ian and Hurricane Nicole (November 2022) — making it one of the lowest Florida orange crops since World War II.
Documented account from our open, cited registry (sources below). Shown as context beside the price record — co-occurrence in time, never an asserted cause.
Affected ingredients
Why these ingredients were exposed
Each affected ingredient's public supply structure — where it comes from and how much it leans on imports. Context that makes the co-occurrence with a documented event legible, never its cause.
- GrapefruitDomestically sourced comes almost entirely from domestic production, with little import buffer (reliance ~21% by value). Its exposure runs through domestic production structure, not import origins — a domestic event overlaps its price window.
Reliance is a share of import value, a rough exposure proxy, not a supply-security score. It explains why an ingredient sits in the path of a documented event — not that the event caused any price move. Co-occurrence in time, never a cause.
The detected moves that overlapped
Each figure is a wholesale reference against its own ±26-week normal — a market move, never a delivered price.
No sustained wholesale move in our detected set falls inside this event's window. The event is documented; our public price series simply didn't flag a notable departure from normal for these ingredients then — an honest absence, not a hidden one.
What moved together
Co-occurrence, not cause
Grapefruit
In Grapefruit's 6 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:
Moving in the same weeks is not one thing causing another — many of these share a growing region, a shipping lane, or an aisle. It is a directed, bounded count: in K of an ingredient's own notable moves, another ran the same way.
Sources
2 sources
- Citrus (December Forecast), released December 9, 2022 — Florida 2022/23 orange and grapefruit production forecasts — USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service
- USDA: Florida orange crop down 36% after twin hurricanes — Tampa Bay Times (Associated Press)
Documented events come from our open, cited registry (CC‑BY). Price moves are detected from public history (USDA/BLS/FRED) and shown as co-occurring context, never asserted as the cause. How events are picked.