Market events

Indonesia palm-oil export ban (2022)

Apr 2022: a documented market event that overlapped the wholesale price windows of 1 tracked ingredient — co-occurrence in time, never an asserted cause.

What happened

Indonesia, the world's largest palm-oil producer and exporter, imposed a temporary ban on exports of crude palm oil, refined/bleached/deodorised (RBD) palm oil, RBD palm olein and used cooking oil effective April 28, 2022, stated to secure domestic cooking-oil supplies. FAO GIEWS documented that the ban was lifted on May 23, 2022 (about three weeks) via Regulation No. 30/2022, after which Indonesia reinstated a Domestic Market Obligation and Domestic Price Obligation requiring a share of palm-oil supply to be reserved for the domestic market.

Documented account from our open, cited registry (sources below). Shown as context beside the price record — co-occurrence in time, never an asserted cause.

Affected ingredients

  • Vegetable oil

Why these ingredients were exposed

Each affected ingredient's public supply structure — where it comes from and how much it leans on imports. Context that makes the co-occurrence with a documented event legible, never its cause.

  • Vegetable oilDomestically sourced comes almost entirely from domestic production, with little import buffer. Its exposure runs through domestic production structure, not import origins — a domestic event overlaps its price window.

It explains why an ingredient sits in the path of a documented event — not that the event caused any price move. Co-occurrence in time, never a cause.

The detected moves that overlapped

Each figure is a wholesale reference against its own ±26-week normal — a market move, never a delivered price.

No sustained wholesale move in our detected set falls inside this event's window. The event is documented; our public price series simply didn't flag a notable departure from normal for these ingredients then — an honest absence, not a hidden one.

What moved together

Co-occurrence, not cause

Vegetable oil

In Vegetable oil's 6 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:

  1. Carrot2 of 6 moves
  2. Jalapeño2 of 6 moves
  3. Acorn squash1 of 6 moves
  4. Beef tenderloin1 of 6 moves
  5. Bell pepper1 of 6 moves

Moving in the same weeks is not one thing causing another — many of these share a growing region, a shipping lane, or an aisle. It is a directed, bounded count: in K of an ingredient's own notable moves, another ran the same way.

Sources

2 sources

Documented events come from our open, cited registry (CC‑BY). Price moves are detected from public history (USDA/BLS/FRED) and shown as co-occurring context, never asserted as the cause. How events are picked.