The claim ledger
Every number, traced to its source.
Honesty isn’t a value statement on this site — it’s the product. So every externally-verifiable number the library asserts is registered here, paired with the primary public source it came from and the date it was last checked. If a figure can’t be traced to a source, it doesn’t get published as fact. This is the human view; the same ledger is machine-readable at /claims.json.
How to read it
Muntin makes three kinds of claim, and treats each differently:
- External research — cited inline to its primary source (government statistical series, named research, platform pricing pages) and dated. These are the claims listed below and in /claims.json.
- Operating-floor experience — first-hand from Don’s shifts, labeled as operator experience where no public document backs it. Those live at /about/, not here, because there’s no URL to point at.
- Illustrative — example figures used to show a method, named as illustrative in the prose so they’re never read as measured. Methods is the full policy.
The ledger
42 externally-verifiable claims, each checked against a primary public source. Last verified 2026-06-19.
-
Google AI Overviews appeared on 13.14% of US desktop queries in March 2025
Source: Search Engine Land (March 2025 analysis) · verified 2026-05-14
-
Baymard Institute publishes a meta-analysis of cart-abandonment rate statistics
Source: Baymard Institute — "50 Cart Abandonment Rate Statistics 2026" · verified 2026-05-14
-
Gemini became the #2 AI referral source in 2026, rising from 4.3% to 11.6% of AI referrals in Q1 and 13.2% by April, while ChatGPT fell from 89.2% to 81.4%.
Source: BrightEdge — AI referral data (May 2026) · verified 2026-05-22
-
Como standalone loyalty platform — no openly published pricing
Source: Como · verified 2026-05-14
-
Over the 12 months ending May 2026, the U.S. CPI food-at-home index rose 2.7% and the all-food index rose 3.1%.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI for May 2026 (released June 10, 2026) · verified 2026-06-14
-
Over the 12 months ending May 2026, the U.S. CPI food-away-from-home index rose 3.5% (full-service meals 3.8%, limited-service meals 3.3%).
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI for May 2026 (released June 10, 2026) · verified 2026-06-14
-
DC Initiative 82 (Tipped Wage Workers Fairness Act) phases out the tipped minimum wage in the District of Columbia
Source: DC Office of Human Rights — Tipped Wage Workers Fairness Act · verified 2026-05-14
-
DoorDash Marketplace commission tiers: Basic 15%, Plus 25%, Premier 30%
Source: DoorDash Merchant docs · verified 2026-05-14
-
Father's Day 2026 falls on Sunday, June 21 (the third Sunday in June).
Source: U.S. calendar (third Sunday in June); corroborated by OpenTable Father's Day 2026 listings. · verified 2026-06-18
-
Fivestars standalone loyalty platform — no openly published pricing
Source: Fivestars · verified 2026-05-14
-
The long-standing industry target for restaurant food cost is 28–35% of food sales, and it varies by service model: quick-service / fast-casual roughly 25–30%, casual ~30–34%, and fine dining ~34–40% (premium ingredients, lower covers).
Source: Restaurant365 — What is a good food cost percentage? · verified 2026-06-18
-
At Google I/O on May 19, 2026, Google rebuilt AI Mode on a new model with a redesigned search box and agentic capabilities, including booking restaurant tables through OpenTable, Resy, and Tock; AI Mode reaches 1B+ monthly users with US rollout over summer 2026.
Source: Google — The Keyword, I/O 2026 Search updates · verified 2026-05-22
-
Google states that businesses with photos receive significantly more directions requests and click-throughs than businesses without
Source: Google Business Profile Help — Add photos and videos · verified 2026-05-14
-
Google's May 2026 core update began rolling out on May 21, 2026 and may take up to two weeks to complete; it is the second core update of the year.
Source: Google Search Status Dashboard · verified 2026-05-22
-
Google ranks local results by distance, relevance, and prominence — and review-response activity is one of the signals weighted toward prominence
Source: Google Business Profile Help — Improve your local ranking · verified 2026-05-14
-
Google Search Central documents Restaurant, Menu, OpeningHoursSpecification, AggregateRating, Reservation, and FAQPage as supported schema types for restaurant pages
Source: Google Search Central — Local Business structured data · verified 2026-05-14
-
Independent restaurants commonly report saving roughly 10–30% on food and supply costs by buying through a group purchasing organization, which aggregates volume to reach pricing tiers a single operator buying direct from a distributor cannot.
Source: Restaurant Business — GPO 101 · verified 2026-06-19
-
Grubhub commission tiers and second-layer fee structure
Source: Grubhub Merchant · verified 2026-05-14
-
Meta's late-2024 algorithm update penalizes stacked-hashtag posts
Source: Meta — Creator updates · verified 2026-05-14
-
Klaviyo email tier monthly cost
Source: Klaviyo · verified 2026-05-14
-
Mailchimp email tier monthly cost
Source: Mailchimp · verified 2026-05-14
-
Menus lag supplier costs: U.S. full-service menu prices rose about 4.4% year-over-year as of mid-2025, while wholesale food costs remained far above pre-pandemic levels (the source cites 36%+).
Source: Barmetrix — Restaurant Inflation (2025) · verified 2026-06-18
-
Operators are advised to revisit menu pricing in smaller increments roughly every six months rather than infrequent large jumps, because a dish costed six months earlier may have drifted significantly as supplier prices move.
Source: GoFoodService — Menu Pricing Guide · verified 2026-06-18
-
The Muntin Cost Index put wholesale ribeye near $11.59 per pound as of June 5, 2026 (sourced from USDA Livestock Mandatory Reporting), flagged flat within its normal weekly range despite an upward two-year trend.
Source: Muntin Cost Index (data/cost-index.json, generated from verified sources only) · verified 2026-06-14
-
The National Restaurant Association publishes annual State of the Industry research
Source: National Restaurant Association — Research Reports · verified 2026-05-14
-
Nielsen Norman Group has published research on Fitts's Law and broader web usability
Source: Nielsen Norman Group — "Fitts's Law and Its Applications in UX" · verified 2026-05-14
-
The National Restaurant Association's research ranks Father's Day among the most popular holidays for dining out (after Mother's Day and Valentine's Day).
Source: National Restaurant Association — consumer dining research. · verified 2026-06-18
-
65% of diners prefer to book directly on a restaurant's own website rather than through a third party (OpenTable, 2026).
Source: OpenTable — 2026 diner trends · verified 2026-05-22
-
Restaurant reservations for Father's Day rise year over year, per OpenTable.
Source: OpenTable — 2026 diner trends. · verified 2026-06-18
-
Protein is typically the highest-cost ingredient category on a restaurant menu, and protein price volatility is a primary driver of food-cost-percentage swings.
Source: meez — How to calculate food cost · verified 2026-06-18
-
A 2026 local-search analysis found restaurant Google Maps views down 40.1% and food orders from those listings down 25.7% over two years, even as rankings held.
Source: Rio SEO — 2026 Local Search Report · verified 2026-05-22
-
Square Loyalty monthly cost (starts $25/month per Square)
Source: Square — Loyalty pricing help article · verified 2026-05-14
-
AI local packs appeared on roughly 7% of tracked local keywords in 2026 and dropped the click-to-call button when shown.
Source: Sterling Sky — The State of Local SEO in 2026 · verified 2026-05-22
-
Think with Google has published research on mobile page-speed industry benchmarks
Source: Think with Google — "New Industry Benchmarks for Mobile Page Speed" (Daniel An, Feb 2017) · verified 2026-05-14
-
Toast Loyalty add-on monthly cost (~$50/month per Toast)
Source: Toast — Loyalty product page · verified 2026-05-14
-
Uber Eats commission tiers and Pro membership cost
Source: Uber Eats Merchant · verified 2026-05-14
-
A 2026 Uberall study found 83% of restaurants do not appear in AI search results, despite 86% having a Google Business Profile; AI assistants name only 3-5 brands per query.
Source: Uberall — Fast Food, Faster Discovery: The 2026 GEO Playbook for Multi-Location QSRs · verified 2026-05-22
-
AI assistants apply minimum star-rating thresholds before recommending a restaurant: roughly 4.3 for ChatGPT, 4.1 for Perplexity, and 3.9 for Gemini (Uberall, 2026).
Source: Uberall — 2026 GEO Playbook · verified 2026-05-22
-
USDA ERS forecasts 2026 all-food prices up 3.4%, food away from home up 3.5%, and food at home up 3.2%.
Source: USDA Economic Research Service, Food Price Outlook (May 2026 forecast) · verified 2026-06-14
-
USDA ERS forecasts 2026 retail beef and veal prices up 12.1% (prediction interval 6.6 to 18.1%), the largest food-category increase, citing a U.S. cattle herd shrinking since 2019 against strong demand.
Source: USDA Economic Research Service, Food Price Outlook (May 2026 forecast) · verified 2026-06-14
-
USDA ERS forecasts 2026 retail egg prices down 29.8% (prediction interval -38.8 to -18.3%) as the laying flock recovers from the HPAI avian-flu outbreak.
Source: USDA Economic Research Service, Food Price Outlook (May 2026 forecast) · verified 2026-06-14
-
USDA/CME wholesale reference levels (2026): boxed ribeye ~$10.71/lb and tenderloin ~$15.91/lb (grass-fed whole tenderloin $25–44/lb); ground beef 81/85% lean ~$3.91–4.41/lb; short ribs ~$8–10.5/lb; boneless skinless chicken breast ~$1.14–1.97/lb; CME soybean oil ~$0.48/lb (bulk ~$0.50–1.20/lb).
Source: USDA AMS National Weekly Boxed Beef Cutout; CME soybean oil · verified 2026-06-19
Fetch it, cite it
The whole ledger is published as a single JSON file at /claims.json — one record per claim, each with its source URL and verification date, sorted and stable so you can diff it over time. Quote it, link it, or let an answer engine resolve a number against it.
If a number looks off
A claim that doesn’t resolve, a source that moved, a figure that reads wrong — that’s the most useful message you can send. don@muntin.digital or The Window →. Corrections land in the changelog, dated, within two business days.
Sister surfaces