California citrus freeze (January 2007)
Jan 2007: a documented market event that overlapped the wholesale price windows of 1 tracked ingredient — co-occurrence in time, never an asserted cause.
What happened
Four-to-five consecutive nights of sub-freezing temperatures (Jan 11-17, 2007), with lows dropping into the teens and low 20s F in California's Central Valley, damaged the state's citrus crop. USDA/CDFA and industry assessments reported roughly 27% of the state's navel orange and lemon crop lost, with the majority of the season's fruit still on the trees at the time; the early CNN Money estimate put citrus-crop damage at about $480 million (later total-agriculture estimates rose higher).
Documented account from our open, cited registry (sources below). Shown as context beside the price record — co-occurrence in time, never an asserted cause.
Affected ingredients
Why these ingredients were exposed
Each affected ingredient's public supply structure — where it comes from and how much it leans on imports. Context that makes the co-occurrence with a documented event legible, never its cause.
- LemonImport-exposed its import value concentrates in a few origins (76% Mexico · 11% Colombia, HHI 0.6, a value share), at ~62% reliance by value. That is why an event in that origin region overlaps its price window legibly.
Reliance is a share of import value, a rough exposure proxy, not a supply-security score; origin concentration (HHI) is of import value, not total supply. It explains why an ingredient sits in the path of a documented event — not that the event caused any price move. Co-occurrence in time, never a cause.
The detected moves that overlapped
Each figure is a wholesale reference against its own ±26-week normal — a market move, never a delivered price.
No sustained wholesale move in our detected set falls inside this event's window. The event is documented; our public price series simply didn't flag a notable departure from normal for these ingredients then — an honest absence, not a hidden one.
What moved together
Co-occurrence, not cause
Lemon
In Lemon's 6 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:
Moving in the same weeks is not one thing causing another — many of these share a growing region, a shipping lane, or an aisle. It is a directed, bounded count: in K of an ingredient's own notable moves, another ran the same way.
Sources
2 sources
- Freeze does $480 million damage to California citrus crops — CNN Money
- 2007 freeze: UV could cast new light on citrus damage — University of California / California Agriculture
Documented events come from our open, cited registry (CC‑BY). Price moves are detected from public history (USDA/BLS/FRED) and shown as co-occurring context, never asserted as the cause. How events are picked.