Market events

COVID-19 meatpacking plant closures (spring 2020)

Apr 2020: a documented market event that overlapped the wholesale price windows of 8 tracked ingredients — co-occurrence in time, never an asserted cause.

What happened

Amid COVID-19 outbreaks among plant workers, major US meatpacking plants idled or curtailed operations in spring 2020. Smithfield Foods indefinitely closed its Sioux Falls, SD pork plant (about 4-5% of US pork production) on April 12, 2020, and JBS closed its Greeley, CO beef plant on April 13, 2020; by late April at least 15 plants were reported closed. USDA and the Congressional Research Service documented that daily cattle and hog slaughter capacity fell substantially, that weekly federally inspected cattle slaughter for the week ending April 25, 2020 (469,000 head) was down about 27% year-over-year, and that pork processing capacity utilization bottomed near 54% (53.9% on April 29, 2020) before recovering over the summer.

Documented account from our open, cited registry (sources below). Shown as context beside the price record — co-occurrence in time, never an asserted cause.

Affected ingredients

Why these ingredients were exposed

Each affected ingredient's public supply structure — where it comes from and how much it leans on imports. Context that makes the co-occurrence with a documented event legible, never its cause.

  • RibeyeDomestically sourced comes almost entirely from domestic production, with little import buffer (reliance ~5% by value). Its exposure runs through domestic production structure, not import origins — a domestic event overlaps its price window.
  • StriploinDomestically sourced comes almost entirely from domestic production, with little import buffer (reliance ~5% by value). Its exposure runs through domestic production structure, not import origins — a domestic event overlaps its price window.
  • Short ribDomestically sourced comes almost entirely from domestic production, with little import buffer. Its exposure runs through domestic production structure, not import origins — a domestic event overlaps its price window.
  • Beef tenderloinDomestically sourced comes almost entirely from domestic production, with little import buffer (reliance ~5% by value). Its exposure runs through domestic production structure, not import origins — a domestic event overlaps its price window.
  • Ground beefDomestically sourced comes almost entirely from domestic production, with little import buffer (reliance ~5% by value). Its exposure runs through domestic production structure, not import origins — a domestic event overlaps its price window.
  • Pork bellyDomestically sourced comes almost entirely from domestic production, with little import buffer (reliance ~2% by value). Its exposure runs through domestic production structure, not import origins — a domestic event overlaps its price window.
  • Pork loinDomestically sourced comes almost entirely from domestic production, with little import buffer (reliance ~2% by value). Its exposure runs through domestic production structure, not import origins — a domestic event overlaps its price window.
  • Pork shoulderDomestically sourced comes almost entirely from domestic production, with little import buffer (reliance ~2% by value). Its exposure runs through domestic production structure, not import origins — a domestic event overlaps its price window.

Reliance is a share of import value, a rough exposure proxy, not a supply-security score. It explains why an ingredient sits in the path of a documented event — not that the event caused any price move. Co-occurrence in time, never a cause.

The detected moves that overlapped

Each figure is a wholesale reference against its own ±26-week normal — a market move, never a delivered price.

  1. Beef tenderloin — Apr 2020: the wholesale reference ran −38% below its ±26-week normal, held 37 days.

    Co-occurrence in time, not a cause.

  2. Pork loin — May 2020: the wholesale reference ran +110% above its ±26-week normal, held 77 days.

    Co-occurrence in time, not a cause.

  3. Ribeye — May 2020: the wholesale reference ran +38% above its ±26-week normal, held 42 days.

    Co-occurrence in time, not a cause.

  4. Pork shoulder — May 2020: the wholesale reference ran +100% above its ±26-week normal, held 35 days.

    Co-occurrence in time, not a cause.

  5. Striploin — May 2020: the wholesale reference ran +88% above its ±26-week normal, held 105 days.

    Co-occurrence in time, not a cause.

What moved together

Co-occurrence, not cause

Ribeye

In Ribeye's 6 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:

  1. Garlic2 of 6 moves
  2. Napa cabbage2 of 6 moves
  3. Pork loin2 of 6 moves
  4. Striploin2 of 6 moves
  5. Acorn squash1 of 6 moves

Striploin

In Striploin's 6 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:

  1. Ground Pork2 of 6 moves
  2. Pork loin2 of 6 moves
  3. Pork shoulder2 of 6 moves
  4. Ribeye2 of 6 moves
  5. Acorn squash1 of 6 moves

Short rib

In Short rib's 6 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:

  1. Onions3 of 6 moves
  2. Beef tenderloin2 of 6 moves
  3. Apples1 of 6 moves
  4. Broccoli1 of 6 moves
  5. Butter lettuce1 of 6 moves

Beef tenderloin

In Beef tenderloin's 6 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:

  1. Artichoke2 of 6 moves
  2. Short rib2 of 6 moves
  3. Butter1 of 6 moves
  4. Cauliflower1 of 6 moves
  5. Cheddar cheese1 of 6 moves

Pork Belly

In this dataset, Pork Belly's notable moves didn't share a direction with any other tracked ingredient — it moved on its own.

Pork loin

In Pork loin's 6 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:

  1. Beet2 of 6 moves
  2. Ground Pork2 of 6 moves
  3. Pork shoulder2 of 6 moves
  4. Ribeye2 of 6 moves
  5. Striploin2 of 6 moves

Pork shoulder

In Pork shoulder's 6 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:

  1. Ground Pork6 of 6 moves
  2. Pork loin2 of 6 moves
  3. Striploin2 of 6 moves
  4. Asparagus1 of 6 moves
  5. Beef tenderloin1 of 6 moves

Moving in the same weeks is not one thing causing another — many of these share a growing region, a shipping lane, or an aisle. It is a directed, bounded count: in K of an ingredient's own notable moves, another ran the same way.

Sources

3 sources
Check your own invoice against this reference All market events

Documented events come from our open, cited registry (CC‑BY). Price moves are detected from public history (USDA/BLS/FRED) and shown as co-occurring context, never asserted as the cause. How events are picked.