Pork shoulder
~$1.10–$1.18/lb · as of 2026-07-16 Hold
Pork shoulder trades on a wholesale reference price that moves week to week; right now it's reading down across public sources (as of 2026-07-16). To see the live number, the typical range, and where your own price sits, open the reading below — then check your last invoice against it.
What is the cheapest month to buy pork shoulder?
The cheapest month for pork shoulder is usually October, and the priciest is June — a clear seasonal window: about 21% cheaper at its October low than at its June peak, across the multi-year public history (USDA, BLS, FRED). That is calendar co-occurrence, not a forecast; read it against your own invoice.
Why it matters
Pork shoulder trades per lb as a wholesale reference. That is the market's figure, not the delivered price at your door — your invoice adds freight, the vendor's margin, and your volume. Always compare in the same unit.
The price moves with forces upstream of your kitchen — chiefly corn (feed), soybeans (feed), and diesel. That is an association, not a direct cause, but when those climb, pork shoulder tends to follow. So a higher invoice is not always the vendor's doing: sometimes the whole market moved.
Notable price events
Across the ~13.5 years of public data we track, the wholesale reference for pork shoulder moved farthest from its normal range on these dates. Each figure is the peak versus its own ~1-year local median — a market move, not a vendor markup.
What this means for your kitchen
Pork shoulder: a highly volatile line. Don't anchor it to a printed menu price you can't revisit for months: keep headroom, and when the reading runs hot, feature it less or trim the portion before you eat the margin. Its big moves have typically held ~9 weeks before easing — plan for that, not for a bounce next week.
And the read that matters most: when a spike here lines up with a documented market event (below), a high invoice is the market — hold your price or re-engineer the plate, don't burn the vendor relationship. When the reference is calm but your price isn't, that's the conversation worth having.
-
May 2020 ▲ 100% above normal
Documented around this time African swine fever in China (2018-19), global hog-supply shock
What happened · sources
China, the world's largest pork producer, confirmed its first case of African swine fever (ASF) on August 3, 2018; the virus spread to every province by mid-2019. USDA ERS documented that China's swine inventory fell more than 40% year over year by late 2019 and that Chinese pork production fell sharply, with reduced Chinese output sharply increasing demand for imported pork; US pork exports to China through November 2019 (more than 790 million pounds) were more than double the same period in 2018. China Ministry of Agriculture / industry estimates put the hog inventory decline at 320.8 million to 190.9 million head by August 2019 (~40%), the sow herd down about 39%, 2019 production down roughly 21%, and about 143 million pigs dead from disease or culling.
USDA Economic Research Service (Amber Waves) · USDA Economic Research Service
-
Jun 2021 ▲ 84% above normal
-
Jun 2023 ▲ 48% above normal
-
Jul 2022 ▲ 43% above normal
-
May 2015 ▲ 42% above normal
-
Jun 2025 ▲ 31% above normal
Other documented events for pork shoulder
Documented around this time COVID-19 meatpacking plant closures (spring 2020)
What happened · sources
Amid COVID-19 outbreaks among plant workers, major US meatpacking plants idled or curtailed operations in spring 2020. Smithfield Foods indefinitely closed its Sioux Falls, SD pork plant (about 4-5% of US pork production) on April 12, 2020, and JBS closed its Greeley, CO beef plant on April 13, 2020; by late April at least 15 plants were reported closed. USDA and the Congressional Research Service documented that daily cattle and hog slaughter capacity fell substantially, that weekly federally inspected cattle slaughter for the week ending April 25, 2020 (469,000 head) was down about 27% year-over-year, and that pork processing capacity utilization bottomed near 54% (53.9% on April 29, 2020) before recovering over the summer.
Congressional Research Service · USDA · USDA Economic Research Service
Documented around this time Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv) outbreak (2013-14)
What happened · sources
Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv), a swine disease that is nearly 100% fatal to piglets less than two weeks old, was first confirmed in the United States in May 2013 and spread through 2013 into 2014 across more than 30 states (reported at more than 4,700 farms in 30 states by June 2014). USDA and peer-reviewed assessments documented the death of millions of newborn piglets over the epidemic year (estimates on the order of 7-8 million pigs), a roughly 3% decline in the US pigs-saved-per-litter rate, and roughly 5 million fewer hogs sent to slaughter during the affected period.
USDA Economic Research Service · USDA Economic Research Service · Journal of Animal Science (via PMC / NIH; PMID 26641031)
Price moves are detected from public history (USDA/BLS/FRED). Documented events come from our open, cited registry — shown as co-occurring context, never asserted as the cause. How events are picked.
How to use this reading
- Open the reading above and note the typical range and the date.
- Pull your last pork shoulder invoice, in the same unit.
- Below the range is a good deal; inside is normal; well above is a vendor conversation.
- Watch the direction over a few weeks before re-pricing a dish — one week is noise.
Costing a dish that uses pork shoulder? Use the Plate Cost Calculator.
Frequently asked
What does pork shoulder cost wholesale right now?
It moves week to week. The market read above shows the current typical range and the date behind it; read it against your own invoice.
What is the best time of year to buy pork shoulder?
The cheapest stretch for pork shoulder is usually around October, and the priciest around June, based on its multi-year public price history. That is a calendar pattern, not a forecast; read it against your invoice.
Why did my pork shoulder price jump?
It can be the whole market or a single vendor. The range tells you which: if your price lands inside the range, the market moved; well above the range is a vendor conversation. It tends to move with corn (feed), soybeans (feed), diesel — association, not direct cause.
What unit is pork shoulder priced in?
It trades per lb as a wholesale reference — not the delivered price you pay, so compare against your invoice in the same unit.
Am I overpaying for pork shoulder?
Place your own price on the typical range above. Below the range is a good deal; inside is normal; above the range is worth a vendor conversation.
More porkPork loin
This is the market reference. To see whether your invoices track it, line by line, that's Muntin Ledger — your data, no language model.
Sourced: USDA Livestock, Poultry & Grain Market News · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — public data, via the live tool · what a cost index is