Florida citrus greening (Huanglongbing/HLB), first detected 2005 - ongoing
2005–2026: a documented market event that overlapped the wholesale price windows of 1 tracked ingredient — co-occurrence in time, never an asserted cause.
What happened
Citrus greening (Huanglongbing/HLB), a bacterial disease spread by the Asian citrus psyllid that causes premature fruit drop, misshapen unripe fruit and eventual tree death, was first detected in Florida's commercial groves in 2005. USDA data show Florida orange production fell from about 242 million boxes in 2003/04 to roughly 41 million boxes by 2022 — an estimated ~92% decline that USDA attributes to citrus greening compounded by hurricanes. Florida grapefruit and other citrus were similarly affected, and the disease remains present and unresolved through the present.
Documented account from our open, cited registry (sources below). Shown as context beside the price record — co-occurrence in time, never an asserted cause.
Affected ingredients
Why these ingredients were exposed
Each affected ingredient's public supply structure — where it comes from and how much it leans on imports. Context that makes the co-occurrence with a documented event legible, never its cause.
- GrapefruitDomestically sourced comes almost entirely from domestic production, with little import buffer (reliance ~21% by value). Its exposure runs through domestic production structure, not import origins — a domestic event overlaps its price window.
Reliance is a share of import value, a rough exposure proxy, not a supply-security score. It explains why an ingredient sits in the path of a documented event — not that the event caused any price move. Co-occurrence in time, never a cause.
The detected moves that overlapped
Each figure is a wholesale reference against its own ±26-week normal — a market move, never a delivered price.
Grapefruit — Oct 2006: the wholesale reference ran +44% above its ±26-week normal, held 140 days.
Co-occurrence in time, not a cause.Grapefruit — Oct 2009: the wholesale reference ran +34% above its ±26-week normal, held 34 days.
Co-occurrence in time, not a cause.Grapefruit — Oct 2012: the wholesale reference ran +33% above its ±26-week normal, held 140 days.
Co-occurrence in time, not a cause.Grapefruit — Oct 2016: the wholesale reference ran +54% above its ±26-week normal, held 98 days.
Co-occurrence in time, not a cause.
What moved together
Co-occurrence, not cause
Grapefruit
In Grapefruit's 6 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:
Moving in the same weeks is not one thing causing another — many of these share a growing region, a shipping lane, or an aisle. It is a directed, bounded count: in K of an ingredient's own notable moves, another ran the same way.
Sources
1 source
- Natural disasters, disease cut Florida orange production an estimated 92 percent since 2003/04 — USDA Economic Research Service
Documented events come from our open, cited registry (CC‑BY). Price moves are detected from public history (USDA/BLS/FRED) and shown as co-occurring context, never asserted as the cause. How events are picked.