Hurricane Irma - Florida citrus (September 2017)
Sep 2017: a documented market event that overlapped the wholesale price windows of 1 tracked ingredient — co-occurrence in time, never an asserted cause.
What happened
Hurricane Irma made US landfall in the Florida Keys on Sept 10, 2017 and tracked up the peninsula through citrus-growing counties, knocking ripening fruit from trees, uprooting trees and flooding groves. In its Oct 12, 2017 Crop Production report, USDA NASS forecast the 2017/18 Florida orange crop at 54.0 million boxes and noted increased fruit drop attributable largely to Irma's high winds; Florida grapefruit was forecast at 4.90 million boxes, 37% below the prior season, with the drop percentage including Irma's effects.
Documented account from our open, cited registry (sources below). Shown as context beside the price record — co-occurrence in time, never an asserted cause.
Affected ingredients
Why these ingredients were exposed
Each affected ingredient's public supply structure — where it comes from and how much it leans on imports. Context that makes the co-occurrence with a documented event legible, never its cause.
- GrapefruitDomestically sourced comes almost entirely from domestic production, with little import buffer (reliance ~21% by value). Its exposure runs through domestic production structure, not import origins — a domestic event overlaps its price window.
Reliance is a share of import value, a rough exposure proxy, not a supply-security score. It explains why an ingredient sits in the path of a documented event — not that the event caused any price move. Co-occurrence in time, never a cause.
The detected moves that overlapped
Each figure is a wholesale reference against its own ±26-week normal — a market move, never a delivered price.
No sustained wholesale move in our detected set falls inside this event's window. The event is documented; our public price series simply didn't flag a notable departure from normal for these ingredients then — an honest absence, not a hidden one.
What moved together
Co-occurrence, not cause
Grapefruit
In Grapefruit's 6 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:
Moving in the same weeks is not one thing causing another — many of these share a growing region, a shipping lane, or an aisle. It is a directed, bounded count: in K of an ingredient's own notable moves, another ran the same way.
Sources
2 sources
- Hurricane Irma Impact on Florida Orange Production — USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service
- Hurricane Irma further reduced already shrinking Florida citrus production — USDA Economic Research Service
Documented events come from our open, cited registry (CC‑BY). Price moves are detected from public history (USDA/BLS/FRED) and shown as co-occurring context, never asserted as the cause. How events are picked.