Market events

INSV outbreak in Salinas Valley lettuce (2020)

Jun 2020: a documented market event that overlapped the wholesale price windows of 5 tracked ingredients — co-occurrence in time, never an asserted cause.

What happened

Peer-reviewed research and regional reporting documented a severe outbreak of impatiens necrotic spot virus (INSV), a thrips-transmitted orthotospovirus, in lettuce across California's Salinas Valley (Monterey County) during the 2020 growing season. A survey of roughly 1,350 fields reported an average crop loss of about 33%, with some fields reaching 100% loss, and an estimated $100 million in lost gross revenue for Salinas Valley lettuce growers that year. All lettuce types (iceberg, butterhead, romaine, and leaf) are documented as susceptible. Western flower thrips (Frankliniella occidentalis) populations and hot weather were identified as drivers of the outbreak's spread.

Documented account from our open, cited registry (sources below). Shown as context beside the price record — co-occurrence in time, never an asserted cause.

Affected ingredients

Why these ingredients were exposed

Each affected ingredient's public supply structure — where it comes from and how much it leans on imports. Context that makes the co-occurrence with a documented event legible, never its cause.

  • Iceberg lettuceDomestically sourced comes almost entirely from domestic production, with little import buffer (reliance ~12% by value). Its exposure runs through domestic production structure, not import origins — a domestic event overlaps its price window.
  • Romaine lettuceDomestically sourced comes almost entirely from domestic production, with little import buffer (reliance ~12% by value). Its exposure runs through domestic production structure, not import origins — a domestic event overlaps its price window.
  • Green leaf lettuceDomestically sourced comes almost entirely from domestic production, with little import buffer (reliance ~12% by value). Its exposure runs through domestic production structure, not import origins — a domestic event overlaps its price window.
  • Red leaf lettuceDomestically sourced comes almost entirely from domestic production, with little import buffer (reliance ~12% by value). Its exposure runs through domestic production structure, not import origins — a domestic event overlaps its price window.
  • Butter lettuceDomestically sourced comes almost entirely from domestic production, with little import buffer (reliance ~12% by value). Its exposure runs through domestic production structure, not import origins — a domestic event overlaps its price window.

Reliance is a share of import value, a rough exposure proxy, not a supply-security score. It explains why an ingredient sits in the path of a documented event — not that the event caused any price move. Co-occurrence in time, never a cause.

The detected moves that overlapped

Each figure is a wholesale reference against its own ±26-week normal — a market move, never a delivered price.

No sustained wholesale move in our detected set falls inside this event's window. The event is documented; our public price series simply didn't flag a notable departure from normal for these ingredients then — an honest absence, not a hidden one.

What moved together

Co-occurrence, not cause

Iceberg lettuce

In Iceberg lettuce's 6 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:

  1. Red leaf lettuce5 of 6 moves
  2. Green leaf lettuce4 of 6 moves
  3. Romaine lettuce4 of 6 moves
  4. Butter lettuce3 of 6 moves
  5. Artichoke2 of 6 moves

Romaine lettuce

In Romaine lettuce's 6 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:

  1. Red leaf lettuce5 of 6 moves
  2. Iceberg lettuce4 of 6 moves
  3. Broccoli3 of 6 moves
  4. Green leaf lettuce3 of 6 moves
  5. Raspberries3 of 6 moves

Green leaf lettuce

In Green leaf lettuce's 6 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:

  1. Iceberg lettuce4 of 6 moves
  2. Red leaf lettuce4 of 6 moves
  3. Butter lettuce3 of 6 moves
  4. Romaine lettuce3 of 6 moves
  5. Broccoli2 of 6 moves

Red leaf lettuce

In Red leaf lettuce's 6 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:

  1. Iceberg lettuce5 of 6 moves
  2. Romaine lettuce5 of 6 moves
  3. Green leaf lettuce4 of 6 moves
  4. Broccoli3 of 6 moves
  5. Butter lettuce3 of 6 moves

Butter lettuce

In Butter lettuce's 6 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:

  1. Green leaf lettuce3 of 6 moves
  2. Iceberg lettuce3 of 6 moves
  3. Red leaf lettuce3 of 6 moves
  4. Cherry tomatoes2 of 6 moves
  5. Cucumber2 of 6 moves

Moving in the same weeks is not one thing causing another — many of these share a growing region, a shipping lane, or an aisle. It is a directed, bounded count: in K of an ingredient's own notable moves, another ran the same way.

Sources

2 sources
Check your own invoice against this reference All market events

Documented events come from our open, cited registry (CC‑BY). Price moves are detected from public history (USDA/BLS/FRED) and shown as co-occurring context, never asserted as the cause. How events are picked.