Market events

INSV outbreak and fall lettuce supply shortfall, Salinas Valley (2022)

Jun 2022: a documented market event that overlapped the wholesale price windows of 5 tracked ingredients — co-occurrence in time, never an asserted cause.

What happened

Published research and industry reporting documented that INSV outbreaks, combined with the soil-borne pathogen Pythium wilt, affected Salinas Valley lettuce production in 2022, with an estimated $150 million in losses to the region's lettuce industry reported for the year. Survey work in Monterey County (2021 season) detected the virus at incidence above 1% in more than 750 fields, with incidence above 50% not uncommon and severe fields reaching up to 100% loss. In fall 2022, Salinas Valley lettuce supplies were documented as short, with record wholesale per-box prices reported for iceberg, romaine, green leaf and red leaf lettuce; the December transition to desert growing regions was separately affected by unusually cool weather.

Documented account from our open, cited registry (sources below). Shown as context beside the price record — co-occurrence in time, never an asserted cause.

Affected ingredients

Why these ingredients were exposed

Each affected ingredient's public supply structure — where it comes from and how much it leans on imports. Context that makes the co-occurrence with a documented event legible, never its cause.

  • Iceberg lettuceDomestically sourced comes almost entirely from domestic production, with little import buffer (reliance ~12% by value). Its exposure runs through domestic production structure, not import origins — a domestic event overlaps its price window.
  • Romaine lettuceDomestically sourced comes almost entirely from domestic production, with little import buffer (reliance ~12% by value). Its exposure runs through domestic production structure, not import origins — a domestic event overlaps its price window.
  • Green leaf lettuceDomestically sourced comes almost entirely from domestic production, with little import buffer (reliance ~12% by value). Its exposure runs through domestic production structure, not import origins — a domestic event overlaps its price window.
  • Red leaf lettuceDomestically sourced comes almost entirely from domestic production, with little import buffer (reliance ~12% by value). Its exposure runs through domestic production structure, not import origins — a domestic event overlaps its price window.
  • Butter lettuceDomestically sourced comes almost entirely from domestic production, with little import buffer (reliance ~12% by value). Its exposure runs through domestic production structure, not import origins — a domestic event overlaps its price window.

Reliance is a share of import value, a rough exposure proxy, not a supply-security score. It explains why an ingredient sits in the path of a documented event — not that the event caused any price move. Co-occurrence in time, never a cause.

The detected moves that overlapped

Each figure is a wholesale reference against its own ±26-week normal — a market move, never a delivered price.

  1. Green leaf lettuce — Nov 2022: the wholesale reference ran +307% above its ±26-week normal, held 126 days.

    Co-occurrence in time, not a cause.

  2. Red leaf lettuce — Nov 2022: the wholesale reference ran +238% above its ±26-week normal, held 119 days.

    Co-occurrence in time, not a cause.

  3. Romaine lettuce — Nov 2022: the wholesale reference ran +263% above its ±26-week normal, held 119 days.

    Co-occurrence in time, not a cause.

  4. Butter lettuce — Nov 2022: the wholesale reference ran +76% above its ±26-week normal, held 28 days.

    Co-occurrence in time, not a cause.

  5. Iceberg lettuce — Nov 2022: the wholesale reference ran +215% above its ±26-week normal, held 133 days.

    Co-occurrence in time, not a cause.

What moved together

Co-occurrence, not cause

Iceberg lettuce

In Iceberg lettuce's 6 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:

  1. Red leaf lettuce5 of 6 moves
  2. Green leaf lettuce4 of 6 moves
  3. Romaine lettuce4 of 6 moves
  4. Butter lettuce3 of 6 moves
  5. Artichoke2 of 6 moves

Romaine lettuce

In Romaine lettuce's 6 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:

  1. Red leaf lettuce5 of 6 moves
  2. Iceberg lettuce4 of 6 moves
  3. Broccoli3 of 6 moves
  4. Green leaf lettuce3 of 6 moves
  5. Raspberries3 of 6 moves

Green leaf lettuce

In Green leaf lettuce's 6 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:

  1. Iceberg lettuce4 of 6 moves
  2. Red leaf lettuce4 of 6 moves
  3. Butter lettuce3 of 6 moves
  4. Romaine lettuce3 of 6 moves
  5. Broccoli2 of 6 moves

Red leaf lettuce

In Red leaf lettuce's 6 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:

  1. Iceberg lettuce5 of 6 moves
  2. Romaine lettuce5 of 6 moves
  3. Green leaf lettuce4 of 6 moves
  4. Broccoli3 of 6 moves
  5. Butter lettuce3 of 6 moves

Butter lettuce

In Butter lettuce's 6 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:

  1. Green leaf lettuce3 of 6 moves
  2. Iceberg lettuce3 of 6 moves
  3. Red leaf lettuce3 of 6 moves
  4. Cherry tomatoes2 of 6 moves
  5. Cucumber2 of 6 moves

Moving in the same weeks is not one thing causing another — many of these share a growing region, a shipping lane, or an aisle. It is a directed, bounded count: in K of an ingredient's own notable moves, another ran the same way.

Sources

3 sources
Check your own invoice against this reference All market events

Documented events come from our open, cited registry (CC‑BY). Price moves are detected from public history (USDA/BLS/FRED) and shown as co-occurring context, never asserted as the cause. How events are picked.