Market events

Northwestern Mexico hard freeze (February 2011)

Feb 2011: a documented market event that overlapped the wholesale price windows of 10 tracked ingredients — co-occurrence in time, never an asserted cause.

What happened

An unusually severe freeze on the night of Feb 3-4, 2011 reached deep into northwestern Mexico's winter-vegetable region (Sinaloa, around Culiacan and Los Mochis) — reported as the area's worst cold since 1957 — coinciding with freezes in Florida and Texas. Industry notices described crop losses in the range of 80-100% on affected fields of tomatoes, bell and chili peppers, cucumbers, squash and eggplant, with reduced shipments to the US and Canada expected into early April. Mexico is a major winter supplier of these crops to the US.

Documented account from our open, cited registry (sources below). Shown as context beside the price record — co-occurrence in time, never an asserted cause.

Affected ingredients

Why these ingredients were exposed

Each affected ingredient's public supply structure — where it comes from and how much it leans on imports. Context that makes the co-occurrence with a documented event legible, never its cause.

  • Tomatoes (round)Import-exposed its import value concentrates in a few origins (81% Mexico · 18% Canada, HHI 0.68, a value share), at ~81% reliance by value. That is why an event in that origin region overlaps its price window legibly.
  • Cherry tomatoesImport-exposed its import value concentrates in a few origins (75% Mexico · 18% Canada, HHI 0.59, a value share), at ~81% reliance by value. That is why an event in that origin region overlaps its price window legibly.
  • Bell pepperImport-exposed its import value concentrates in a few origins (73% Mexico · 24% Canada, HHI 0.6, a value share), at ~82% reliance by value. That is why an event in that origin region overlaps its price window legibly.
  • JalapeñoImport-exposed its import value concentrates in a few origins (98% Mexico · 2% Canada, HHI 0.95, a value share), at ~82% reliance by value. That is why an event in that origin region overlaps its price window legibly.
  • Serrano pepperImport-exposed its import value concentrates in a few origins (100% Mexico · 0% Canada, HHI 1, a value share), at ~82% reliance by value. That is why an event in that origin region overlaps its price window legibly.
  • Poblano pepperImport-exposed its import value concentrates in a few origins (100% Mexico · 0% Canada, HHI 1, a value share), at ~82% reliance by value. That is why an event in that origin region overlaps its price window legibly.
  • CucumberImport-exposed its import value concentrates in a few origins (54% Mexico · 46% Canada, HHI 0.5, a value share), at ~85% reliance by value. That is why an event in that origin region overlaps its price window legibly.
  • EggplantDomestically sourced comes almost entirely from domestic production, with little import buffer. Its exposure runs through domestic production structure, not import origins — a domestic event overlaps its price window.
  • ZucchiniImport-exposed its import value concentrates in a few origins (95% Mexico · 4% Canada, HHI 0.91, a value share), at ~48% reliance by value. That is why an event in that origin region overlaps its price window legibly.
  • Yellow squashImport-exposed its import value concentrates in a few origins (100% Mexico · 0% Guatemala, HHI 0.99, a value share), at ~48% reliance by value. That is why an event in that origin region overlaps its price window legibly.

Reliance is a share of import value, a rough exposure proxy, not a supply-security score; origin concentration (HHI) is of import value, not total supply. It explains why an ingredient sits in the path of a documented event — not that the event caused any price move. Co-occurrence in time, never a cause.

The detected moves that overlapped

Each figure is a wholesale reference against its own ±26-week normal — a market move, never a delivered price.

  1. Zucchini — Feb 2011: the wholesale reference ran +364% above its ±26-week normal, held 42 days.

    Co-occurrence in time, not a cause.

  2. Eggplant — Mar 2011: the wholesale reference ran +227% above its ±26-week normal, held 77 days.

    Co-occurrence in time, not a cause.

  3. Cucumber — Mar 2011: the wholesale reference ran +152% above its ±26-week normal, held 63 days.

    Co-occurrence in time, not a cause.

  4. Tomatoes — Apr 2011: the wholesale reference ran +145% above its ±26-week normal, held 84 days.

    Co-occurrence in time, not a cause.

What moved together

Co-occurrence, not cause

Tomatoes

In Tomatoes's 6 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:

  1. Cherry tomatoes3 of 6 moves
  2. Butter lettuce2 of 6 moves
  3. Cantaloupe2 of 6 moves
  4. Cucumber2 of 6 moves
  5. Iceberg lettuce2 of 6 moves

Cherry tomatoes

In Cherry tomatoes's 6 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:

  1. Yellow squash4 of 6 moves
  2. Green beans3 of 6 moves
  3. Tomatoes3 of 6 moves
  4. Bell pepper2 of 6 moves
  5. Butter lettuce2 of 6 moves

Bell pepper

In Bell pepper's 6 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:

  1. Avocado2 of 6 moves
  2. Carrot2 of 6 moves
  3. Cherry tomatoes2 of 6 moves
  4. Green beans2 of 6 moves
  5. Red onion2 of 6 moves

Jalapeño

In Jalapeño's 6 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:

  1. Butternut squash2 of 6 moves
  2. Cabbage2 of 6 moves
  3. Cherry tomatoes2 of 6 moves
  4. Corn on the cob2 of 6 moves
  5. Poblano pepper2 of 6 moves

Serrano pepper

In Serrano pepper's 6 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:

  1. Collard greens2 of 6 moves
  2. Green onion2 of 6 moves
  3. Red onion2 of 6 moves
  4. Acorn squash1 of 6 moves
  5. Avocado1 of 6 moves

Poblano pepper

In Poblano pepper's 6 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:

  1. Jalapeño2 of 6 moves
  2. Spinach2 of 6 moves
  3. Asparagus1 of 6 moves
  4. Broccoli1 of 6 moves
  5. Cabbage1 of 6 moves

Cucumber

In Cucumber's 6 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:

  1. Zucchini3 of 6 moves
  2. Beet2 of 6 moves
  3. Butter lettuce2 of 6 moves
  4. Celery2 of 6 moves
  5. Iceberg lettuce2 of 6 moves

Eggplant

In Eggplant's 6 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:

  1. Red onion3 of 6 moves
  2. Butternut squash2 of 6 moves
  3. Celery2 of 6 moves
  4. Collard greens2 of 6 moves
  5. Kale2 of 6 moves

Zucchini

In Zucchini's 6 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:

  1. Cucumber3 of 6 moves
  2. Broccoli2 of 6 moves
  3. Cabbage2 of 6 moves
  4. Cauliflower2 of 6 moves
  5. Green beans2 of 6 moves

Yellow squash

In Yellow squash's 6 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:

  1. Cherry tomatoes4 of 6 moves
  2. Bell pepper2 of 6 moves
  3. Green beans2 of 6 moves
  4. Habanero pepper2 of 6 moves
  5. Zucchini2 of 6 moves

Moving in the same weeks is not one thing causing another — many of these share a growing region, a shipping lane, or an aisle. It is a directed, bounded count: in K of an ingredient's own notable moves, another ran the same way.

Sources

2 sources
Check your own invoice against this reference All market events

Documented events come from our open, cited registry (CC‑BY). Price moves are detected from public history (USDA/BLS/FRED) and shown as co-occurring context, never asserted as the cause. How events are picked.