Market events

Salmonella Saintpaul outbreak - tomatoes and Mexican peppers (2008)

Apr 2008: a documented market event that overlapped the wholesale price windows of 3 tracked ingredients — co-occurrence in time, never an asserted cause.

What happened

CDC and FDA investigated a large multistate Salmonella Saintpaul outbreak (1,442+ reported illnesses across 43 states plus DC and Canada, 286 hospitalizations, 2 deaths; illness onsets April 10 to August 31, 2008). Jalapeno peppers, and to a lesser extent serrano peppers, traced to farms in Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon, Mexico were identified as major sources; raw tomatoes were implicated early in the investigation and subject to a federal consumer warning (issued June 7, 2008; lifted July 17, 2008) before being cleared as a confirmed source.

Documented account from our open, cited registry (sources below). Shown as context beside the price record — co-occurrence in time, never an asserted cause.

Affected ingredients

Why these ingredients were exposed

Each affected ingredient's public supply structure — where it comes from and how much it leans on imports. Context that makes the co-occurrence with a documented event legible, never its cause.

  • Tomatoes (round)Import-exposed its import value concentrates in a few origins (81% Mexico · 18% Canada, HHI 0.68, a value share), at ~81% reliance by value. That is why an event in that origin region overlaps its price window legibly.
  • JalapeñoImport-exposed its import value concentrates in a few origins (98% Mexico · 2% Canada, HHI 0.95, a value share), at ~82% reliance by value. That is why an event in that origin region overlaps its price window legibly.
  • Serrano pepperImport-exposed its import value concentrates in a few origins (100% Mexico · 0% Canada, HHI 1, a value share), at ~82% reliance by value. That is why an event in that origin region overlaps its price window legibly.

Reliance is a share of import value, a rough exposure proxy, not a supply-security score; origin concentration (HHI) is of import value, not total supply. It explains why an ingredient sits in the path of a documented event — not that the event caused any price move. Co-occurrence in time, never a cause.

The detected moves that overlapped

Each figure is a wholesale reference against its own ±26-week normal — a market move, never a delivered price.

No sustained wholesale move in our detected set falls inside this event's window. The event is documented; our public price series simply didn't flag a notable departure from normal for these ingredients then — an honest absence, not a hidden one.

What moved together

Co-occurrence, not cause

Tomatoes

In Tomatoes's 6 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:

  1. Cherry tomatoes3 of 6 moves
  2. Butter lettuce2 of 6 moves
  3. Cantaloupe2 of 6 moves
  4. Cucumber2 of 6 moves
  5. Iceberg lettuce2 of 6 moves

Jalapeño

In Jalapeño's 6 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:

  1. Butternut squash2 of 6 moves
  2. Cabbage2 of 6 moves
  3. Cherry tomatoes2 of 6 moves
  4. Corn on the cob2 of 6 moves
  5. Poblano pepper2 of 6 moves

Serrano pepper

In Serrano pepper's 6 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:

  1. Collard greens2 of 6 moves
  2. Green onion2 of 6 moves
  3. Red onion2 of 6 moves
  4. Acorn squash1 of 6 moves
  5. Avocado1 of 6 moves

Moving in the same weeks is not one thing causing another — many of these share a growing region, a shipping lane, or an aisle. It is a directed, bounded count: in K of an ingredient's own notable moves, another ran the same way.

Sources

3 sources
Check your own invoice against this reference All market events

Documented events come from our open, cited registry (CC‑BY). Price moves are detected from public history (USDA/BLS/FRED) and shown as co-occurring context, never asserted as the cause. How events are picked.