Market events

Winter Storm Uri - Texas citrus freeze (February 2021)

Feb 2021: a documented market event that overlapped the wholesale price windows of 1 tracked ingredient — co-occurrence in time, never an asserted cause.

What happened

Winter Storm Uri brought a prolonged hard freeze to Texas in mid-February 2021 (Rio Grande Valley coldest around Feb 15, lows near 22 F for hours), including the Rio Grande Valley citrus region. Growers reported loss of most of the remaining Valencia orange crop and more than 60% of grapefruit, plus extensive tree damage (about 10% of trees damaged or killed) that curtailed the following season's production. Texas A&M AgriLife estimated roughly $230 million in citrus-industry damage, part of more than $600 million in total Texas agricultural losses.

Documented account from our open, cited registry (sources below). Shown as context beside the price record — co-occurrence in time, never an asserted cause.

Affected ingredients

Why these ingredients were exposed

Each affected ingredient's public supply structure — where it comes from and how much it leans on imports. Context that makes the co-occurrence with a documented event legible, never its cause.

  • GrapefruitDomestically sourced comes almost entirely from domestic production, with little import buffer (reliance ~21% by value). Its exposure runs through domestic production structure, not import origins — a domestic event overlaps its price window.

Reliance is a share of import value, a rough exposure proxy, not a supply-security score. It explains why an ingredient sits in the path of a documented event — not that the event caused any price move. Co-occurrence in time, never a cause.

The detected moves that overlapped

Each figure is a wholesale reference against its own ±26-week normal — a market move, never a delivered price.

No sustained wholesale move in our detected set falls inside this event's window. The event is documented; our public price series simply didn't flag a notable departure from normal for these ingredients then — an honest absence, not a hidden one.

What moved together

Co-occurrence, not cause

Grapefruit

In Grapefruit's 6 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:

  1. Apples3 of 6 moves
  2. Carrot2 of 6 moves
  3. Lemon2 of 6 moves
  4. Rutabaga2 of 6 moves
  5. Avocado1 of 6 moves

Moving in the same weeks is not one thing causing another — many of these share a growing region, a shipping lane, or an aisle. It is a directed, bounded count: in K of an ingredient's own notable moves, another ran the same way.

Sources

3 sources
Check your own invoice against this reference All market events

Documented events come from our open, cited registry (CC‑BY). Price moves are detected from public history (USDA/BLS/FRED) and shown as co-occurring context, never asserted as the cause. How events are picked.