Market events

Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv) outbreak (2013-14)

2013–2014: a documented market event that overlapped the wholesale price windows of 3 tracked ingredients — co-occurrence in time, never an asserted cause.

What happened

Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv), a swine disease that is nearly 100% fatal to piglets less than two weeks old, was first confirmed in the United States in May 2013 and spread through 2013 into 2014 across more than 30 states (reported at more than 4,700 farms in 30 states by June 2014). USDA and peer-reviewed assessments documented the death of millions of newborn piglets over the epidemic year (estimates on the order of 7-8 million pigs), a roughly 3% decline in the US pigs-saved-per-litter rate, and roughly 5 million fewer hogs sent to slaughter during the affected period.

Documented account from our open, cited registry (sources below). Shown as context beside the price record — co-occurrence in time, never an asserted cause.

Affected ingredients

Why these ingredients were exposed

Each affected ingredient's public supply structure — where it comes from and how much it leans on imports. Context that makes the co-occurrence with a documented event legible, never its cause.

  • Pork bellyDomestically sourced comes almost entirely from domestic production, with little import buffer (reliance ~2% by value). Its exposure runs through domestic production structure, not import origins — a domestic event overlaps its price window.
  • Pork loinDomestically sourced comes almost entirely from domestic production, with little import buffer (reliance ~2% by value). Its exposure runs through domestic production structure, not import origins — a domestic event overlaps its price window.
  • Pork shoulderDomestically sourced comes almost entirely from domestic production, with little import buffer (reliance ~2% by value). Its exposure runs through domestic production structure, not import origins — a domestic event overlaps its price window.

Reliance is a share of import value, a rough exposure proxy, not a supply-security score. It explains why an ingredient sits in the path of a documented event — not that the event caused any price move. Co-occurrence in time, never a cause.

The detected moves that overlapped

Each figure is a wholesale reference against its own ±26-week normal — a market move, never a delivered price.

  1. Pork loin — Jul 2013: the wholesale reference ran +24% above its ±26-week normal, held 28 days.

    Co-occurrence in time, not a cause.

  2. Pork loin — Mar 2014: the wholesale reference ran +26% above its ±26-week normal, held 21 days.

    Co-occurrence in time, not a cause.

  3. Pork Belly — Jun 2014: the wholesale reference ran +31% above its ±26-week normal, held 275 days.

    Co-occurrence in time, not a cause.

What moved together

Co-occurrence, not cause

Pork Belly

In this dataset, Pork Belly's notable moves didn't share a direction with any other tracked ingredient — it moved on its own.

Pork loin

In Pork loin's 6 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:

  1. Beet2 of 6 moves
  2. Ground Pork2 of 6 moves
  3. Pork shoulder2 of 6 moves
  4. Ribeye2 of 6 moves
  5. Striploin2 of 6 moves

Pork shoulder

In Pork shoulder's 6 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:

  1. Ground Pork6 of 6 moves
  2. Pork loin2 of 6 moves
  3. Striploin2 of 6 moves
  4. Asparagus1 of 6 moves
  5. Beef tenderloin1 of 6 moves

Moving in the same weeks is not one thing causing another — many of these share a growing region, a shipping lane, or an aisle. It is a directed, bounded count: in K of an ingredient's own notable moves, another ran the same way.

Sources

3 sources
Check your own invoice against this reference All market events

Documented events come from our open, cited registry (CC‑BY). Price moves are detected from public history (USDA/BLS/FRED) and shown as co-occurring context, never asserted as the cause. How events are picked.