Market events

2024-2025 winter avian influenza surge

2024–2025: a documented market event that overlapped the wholesale price windows of 5 tracked ingredients — co-occurrence in time, never an asserted cause.

What happened

The ongoing H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b HPAI outbreak intensified over the winter of 2024-2025. USDA APHIS reported roughly 18.25 million birds affected in December 2024 and about 23.3 million in January 2025, with commercial egg-layer depopulations concentrated in Ohio, Indiana, and Missouri; the national table-egg layer flock fell to about 291 million at the end of February 2025 from a typical level near 320-325 million. Cumulatively, USDA reported the 2022-present outbreak had affected more than 166 million birds through late February 2025, including more than 130 million commercial egg layers and over 18 million turkeys.

Documented account from our open, cited registry (sources below). Shown as context beside the price record — co-occurrence in time, never an asserted cause.

Affected ingredients

Why these ingredients were exposed

Each affected ingredient's public supply structure — where it comes from and how much it leans on imports. Context that makes the co-occurrence with a documented event legible, never its cause.

  • EggsDomestically sourced comes almost entirely from domestic production, with little import buffer. Its exposure runs through domestic production structure, not import origins — a domestic event overlaps its price window.
  • Whole turkeyDomestically sourced comes almost entirely from domestic production, with little import buffer. Its exposure runs through domestic production structure, not import origins — a domestic event overlaps its price window.
  • Whole chickenDomestically sourced comes almost entirely from domestic production, with little import buffer. Its exposure runs through domestic production structure, not import origins — a domestic event overlaps its price window.
  • Chicken breast (boneless)Domestically sourced comes almost entirely from domestic production, with little import buffer. Its exposure runs through domestic production structure, not import origins — a domestic event overlaps its price window.
  • Chicken thighDomestically sourced comes almost entirely from domestic production, with little import buffer. Its exposure runs through domestic production structure, not import origins — a domestic event overlaps its price window.

It explains why an ingredient sits in the path of a documented event — not that the event caused any price move. Co-occurrence in time, never a cause.

The detected moves that overlapped

Each figure is a wholesale reference against its own ±26-week normal — a market move, never a delivered price.

  1. Whole turkey — Feb 2025: the wholesale reference ran −21% below its ±26-week normal, held 28 days.

    Co-occurrence in time, not a cause.

  2. Eggs — Feb 2025: the wholesale reference ran +127% above its ±26-week normal, held 42 days.

    Co-occurrence in time, not a cause.

  3. Whole chicken — May 2025: the wholesale reference ran −27% below its ±26-week normal, held 98 days.

    Co-occurrence in time, not a cause.

What moved together

Co-occurrence, not cause

Eggs

In Eggs's 4 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:

  1. Butternut squash1 of 4 moves
  2. Cantaloupe1 of 4 moves
  3. Chicken breast1 of 4 moves
  4. Chicken thigh1 of 4 moves
  5. Collard greens1 of 4 moves

Whole turkey

In Whole turkey's 1 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:

  1. Bok choy1 of 1 moves

Whole chicken

In Whole chicken's 3 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:

  1. Bell pepper1 of 3 moves
  2. Brussels sprouts1 of 3 moves
  3. Ginger root1 of 3 moves
  4. Green beans1 of 3 moves
  5. Green onion1 of 3 moves

Chicken breast

In Chicken breast's 6 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:

  1. Chicken thigh5 of 6 moves
  2. Collard greens2 of 6 moves
  3. Dill2 of 6 moves
  4. Green onion2 of 6 moves
  5. Carrot1 of 6 moves

Chicken thigh

In Chicken thigh's 5 notable moves, these ingredients ran the same direction in the same weeks:

  1. Chicken breast5 of 5 moves
  2. Dill2 of 5 moves
  3. Carrot1 of 5 moves
  4. Cherry tomatoes1 of 5 moves
  5. Collard greens1 of 5 moves

Moving in the same weeks is not one thing causing another — many of these share a growing region, a shipping lane, or an aisle. It is a directed, bounded count: in K of an ingredient's own notable moves, another ran the same way.

Sources

3 sources
Check your own invoice against this reference All market events

Documented events come from our open, cited registry (CC‑BY). Price moves are detected from public history (USDA/BLS/FRED) and shown as co-occurring context, never asserted as the cause. How events are picked.