BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics)the U.S. price, wage & jobs statistics agency
Data source
The U.S. federal statistics agency for prices, wages, and jobs. It publishes the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — what households pay at retail — and the Producer Price Index (PPI) — what businesses charge each other, including wholesale food — free and on a fixed schedule.
Why it mattersIt’s a public number nobody at your distributor controls. When a vendor says costs are up, the PPI shows whether prices businesses charge each other actually rose. The Cost Index uses BLS PPI/CPI to corroborate which way an ingredient’s price is moving — a check on the trend, not the primary wholesale level (that’s USDA).
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USDA Market NewsUSDA’s public market-price reports
Data source
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s reporting service for wholesale food prices, run by its Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS). USDA reporters collect and publish actual transaction prices from terminal and shipping-point markets — produce, poultry, eggs, dairy, grain, and livestock — free to anyone, on a fixed daily or weekly schedule. The Cost Index uses these reports as its primary wholesale level for produce and poultry.
Why it mattersIt’s the closest thing to a public price check on the wholesale food market — built from real deals, not estimates, and not controlled by anyone selling to you. When a distributor says lettuce or chicken is up, the day’s terminal-market report shows what the actual market did. The Cost Index reads USDA Market News first for produce and poultry; BLS and FRED come in behind it to confirm the direction.
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USDA Livestock Mandatory Reporting (LMR)mandatory packer price reporting to USDA
Data source
A USDA program under which meat packers are legally required to report their cattle, hog, and sheep purchase prices — and their boxed-beef and boxed-pork cutout values — to the government. Because nearly every large packer must report, the data is close to a census of the market rather than a survey of a sample, which is exactly what makes it hard to spin. It is public, free, and published on a fixed schedule.
Why it mattersThe price comes from a legal filing, not a phone call — the packers buying the cattle and selling the beef are the ones required to report, so no one along the chain gets to shade the number to their advantage. That is why the Cost Index uses USDA LMR as its primary wholesale source for proteins (beef and pork): when a vendor says meat is up, this is the public read of what packers actually paid and charged.
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USDA Dairy Product Sales Report (NDPSR)the weekly U.S. dairy price benchmark
Data source
A weekly U.S. federal survey that collects actual sales prices and volumes for a handful of benchmark commodity dairy products — butter, cheddar cheese, dry whey, and nonfat dry milk. Those prices underpin the federal milk pricing system, and they’re public, free, and published on a fixed weekly schedule. The Cost Index uses NDPSR as its wholesale source for dairy.
Why it mattersIt’s the closest thing to a public, transaction-based price for commodity dairy — not an opinion or a phoned-in quote, but what was actually bought and sold that week. When your cheese or butter cost moves, NDPSR shows whether the commodity behind it moved too, or whether the change is happening somewhere between the plant and your invoice.
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FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data)the public front door to U.S. economic data
Data source
A free public database run by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. It gathers hundreds of thousands of economic series from many original producers — the BLS, the Census Bureau, the USDA, and others — into one searchable interface and a single open API. FRED distributes the data; it does not measure prices itself.
Why it mattersIt’s the convenient front door to numbers other agencies produce — one place to find a series and one open API to pull it, instead of chasing each agency’s own download page. The Cost Index uses FRED to pull certain public series programmatically, which keeps the build reproducible. Just keep the original measurer in mind: a price series on FRED is the BLS’s or the USDA’s work, re-served — FRED is the shelf, not the producer.
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EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration)the U.S. federal energy-statistics agency
Data source
The U.S. federal agency for energy statistics. Its most restaurant-relevant series is the weekly retail price of diesel and gasoline — public, free, and on a fixed schedule.
Why it mattersThe Cost Index reads EIA diesel as a freight-cost pressure signal: when diesel climbs, delivery surcharges and freight-in costs tend to follow. It's a leading indicator on delivered cost — not a wholesale food price.
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NOAA Fisheriesthe U.S. ocean-fisheries & landings agency
Data source
The U.S. agency that manages the nation’s ocean fisheries and publishes commercial landings data — the volume and ex-vessel (dock) value of seafood landed at U.S. ports. It’s part of NOAA, also called the National Marine Fisheries Service. Public and free.
Why it mattersIt’s the public read on what U.S.-landed seafood fetches at the dock, so the Cost Index uses it for seafood reference where it can. Be honest about the limit: most restaurant seafood is imported, and domestic landings reporting lags and is thin — so seafood is one of the index’s lower-confidence, harder-to-cover categories. We name the gap rather than paper over it.
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FDA (U.S. Food and Drug Administration)the U.S. food-safety & labeling regulator
Not a price source
The federal agency that regulates food safety: recalls, labeling rules, facility inspections, additive approvals, and the prevention rules under FSMA. It decides whether food is safe to sell and labeled correctly — not what it costs. The Cost Index draws zero prices from it; it’s a safety regulator, not a price source.
Why it mattersAn operator should absolutely watch the FDA — a recall can empty your walk-in overnight. Just not for pricing: the FDA publishes whether food is safe and labeled right, never what an ingredient sells for. The wholesale level comes from USDA, corroborated by BLS. Safety and cost are two different questions.
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CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange)the U.S. commodity futures market
Not a price source
The U.S. commodity futures market, run by CME Group, where traders buy and sell standardized contracts on the future price of cattle, hogs, milk and dairy, and grains. The Cost Index deliberately does not use it: it tracks physical wholesale prices — the cash market, what a distributor charges this week — not financial futures.
Why it mattersA futures price is a bet on where a commodity is headed months out — not what shows up on your invoice, and it can swing on speculation detached from the cash market. Futures are for hedgers and traders; to tell a restaurant what it will pay, the Cost Index reads the cash side (USDA wholesale reports), not the futures screen.
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Measured, derived, absentmeasured, derived, or honestly absent
A data-honesty taxonomy that labels every reading as exactly one of three states. Measured is a published series shown as-is — the highest confidence. Derived is a labeled estimate built from public inputs when no direct series exists — honest that it's an estimate, never passed off as a measurement. Absent is no usable public data, so the product says so plainly instead of inventing a number.
Why it mattersAny data product can adopt it, and the whole point is that you can always tell which of the three any reading is — a measured fact, a labeled estimate, or an honest gap — before you bet a decision on it. The Cost Index tags every ingredient as exactly one of the three: measured shows a solid line and a source date, derived shows a dashed line and an estimate badge, absent shows a greyed card that names the structural reason rather than a fabricated price.
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Confidence (level vs trend)level certainty vs trend certainty
Two separate certainties about a price: how sure you are of the dollar figure (level confidence) and how sure you are of which way it is moving (trend confidence). The two don't have to match — you can know prices are rising without knowing the exact dollar. The Cost Index scores both and shows the lower one as the headline.
Why it mattersLumping the two together hides what you actually know. A well-measured price shouldn't be marked uncertain just because last week's direction was noisy, and a clean direction shouldn't imply a dollar you can't name. Splitting them lets you act on the half you trust — and the Cost Index headlines the lower of level and trend so the number never claims more certainty than its weaker half can hold.
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The shippable barpublish only when it clears the bar
Method
The publish-or-withhold gate behind the Cost Index. A reading ships only when it clears the bar — either a measured cross-market range where several public markets agree, or a single authoritative source whose direction is corroborated and whose noise is low. A lone, uncorroborated source is held back and shown as absent, not shipped as if it were solid.
Why it mattersIt's the rule that keeps a price honest. Any data product can ship every number it touches; a disciplined one keeps a publish-or-withhold gate, so a thin, uncorroborated figure never reaches you wearing the confidence of a measured one. In the Cost Index it means an ingredient earns a public reading only when the data supports an honest one — otherwise it's named and explained as absent, never faked. Ship complete, or not at all.
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Prediction banda calibrated uncertainty range
A calibrated uncertainty range, not a single guessed number. A prediction (or conformal) band is a range the true value should land inside a stated share of the time — 80% coverage means the real number should fall inside roughly 8 times out of 10.
Why it mattersA single forecast number hides how sure it is; a band shows it. Width is the honesty: a tight band claims a lot, a wide one admits doubt. The Cost Index publishes its derived forecasts as a band targeting 80% coverage (a split/EnbPI conformal method, widened until it holds). Walked forward across 84 ingredients and 5,929 scored steps, the band actually held about 84% of the time — covering a touch more than promised, which is the honest direction to err.
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Calibration (track record)does the confidence earn its name?
Testing whether stated confidence matches the real hit-rate. A forecast that says it is “70% sure” is well-calibrated only if calls like it come true about 70% of the time. The Cost Index publishes its own: its weak, medium, and strong direction calls came true about 48%, 51%, and 58% of the time across 1,877 scored calls, against a coin-flip baseline near 50%.
Why it mattersA confidence label is only worth reading if it’s earned. Calibration is how you check: grade a long run of past calls and see whether each tier comes true as often as it claims. The Cost Index does this in the open — “strong” calls land near 58%, “weak” ones near 48%, against a coin-flip near 50% — so “strong” genuinely beats chance and “weak” honestly barely does. The labels are earned, not decorative.
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Historical-ratio bridgea labeled estimate from a stable ratio
Method
A way to estimate a number you can't measure directly by anchoring it to one you can, through a relationship that has held steady over time — and labeling the result an estimate, not a measurement. If the relationship isn't stable, you don't bridge.
Why it mattersIt's how you get an honest number when no direct one exists — without inventing it. The Cost Index builds a derived reading this way: when an item has no public wholesale series, it bridges from a related public series whose historical ratio has held, draws it as a dashed estimate with a confidence band, and labels it — never dressed up as a measurement. If the ratio isn't stable, it doesn't bridge; the item goes absent with the reason.
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Freshness & series rothow current the data is
Method
How current a number is. Public data publishes on a fixed schedule, so every figure ages between releases — and presenting a stale value as if it were today's reading is its own kind of lie. Series rot is a feed that quietly stops updating, leaving a last value that looks fine but isn't current.
Why it mattersA number's age matters as much as its value: an accurate figure read months late can be just as wrong as a bad one. The Cost Index stores every value's vintage, weighs each reading against its source's own cadence, and watches for series rot — a feed that stalls. A rotting or overdue series is flagged or dropped to absent with the reason, never shown as if it were today's number.
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Pressure overlay (leading indicator)leading signals of cost pressure
Method
A leading indicator is something that reliably moves before the thing you care about, giving early warning. The Cost Index runs a leading-indicator pressure overlay: signals that lead delivered cost — diesel is the clearest, leading freight — published as an inferred direction of pressure (up, down, or flat), never as a dollar price, and only after the signal's own live track record proves out.
Why it mattersIt tells you which way cost is leaning before it lands on an invoice, without pretending to know the number. A leading signal like EIA diesel can warn that freight pressure is building — so a surcharge isn't a surprise — while the overlay stays honest about its limit: a direction, with a track record attached, and no dollar figure. It is the one part of the index that looks forward, and it is bounded hard.
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Revisions & vintagehow published numbers get corrected
Method
Published numbers are versioned. A source agency releases a preliminary figure and later revises it to a final one, so any honest index built on them must revise with them — logging what changed and when, never silently overwriting history. Vintage is which version of a number you are looking at: the release it came from and the date it carried.
Why it mattersIf a number can change after you read it, you need to know which version you acted on. Treating every figure as a value plus a vintage is just good data practice — it keeps a past decision judgeable against what was actually known. The Cost Index follows a stated revision-and-correction policy: when an upstream series is revised, it re-vendors the new value with a fresh vintage and records the change rather than pretending the first number was always right.
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Assessed price (benchmark)an editor-judged market price
Method
A market price set by a private price-reporting agency's editors, who interview buyers and sellers and publish one judged figure that contracts then settle against. It is useful and widely used — but proprietary, usually paywalled, and resting on human judgment a reader cannot fully audit.
Why it mattersIt's the kind of number a vendor points to when they say "the market" moved — fast, granular, and contract-standard, but one you rent and can't fully audit. The Cost Index is deliberately not an assessed benchmark: it's built only from public, free, transaction-based government data (USDA and BLS), so anyone can re-pull the inputs. Knowing the difference tells you which kind of number you're looking at, and what you can check.
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